Produção de cana pode cair 20% com mudanças climáticas, diz estudo
Um estudo do Laboratório Pátrio de Biorrenováveis do Núcleo Pátrio de Pesquisa em Pujança e Materiais (CNPEM) projeta que as mudanças climáticas poderão provocar queda na produção brasileira de cana-de-açúcar de até 20% nos próximos dez anos.
A subtracção, de convenção com a pesquisa, causaria um efeito drástico similar no mercado de etanol combustível e no setor de biocombustíveis do Brasil. O país é líder mundial na produção e consumo de biocombustíveis.
Segundo o levantamento, a redução na quantidade e frequência de chuvas é apontada uma vez que o principal fator prejudicial ao desenvolvimento da cana-de-açúcar, superando até mesmo a elevação das temperaturas.
“A projeção foi verosímil graças a técnicas de modelagem agroclimática. Os pesquisadores analisaram dados climáticos históricos e fizeram simulações considerando variáveis para prezar o que pode suceder, nos próximos anos, com a cultura de cana na região Núcleo-Sul do Brasil”, destacou o CNPEM, em nota.
Dados climáticos
A região estudada abrange os estados de São Paulo, Goiás, Minas Gerais, Paraná, Mato Grosso e Mato Grosso do Sul, que produzem atualmente 90% da cana-de-açúcar do país. A pesquisa utilizou dados climáticos do Instituto Pátrio de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) e adotou o padrão Crop Assessment Tool, desenvolvido pelo CNPEM, para deslindar uma vez que as mudanças climáticas podem afetar a produtividade da cana-de-açúcar.
“A queda na produção já começou a ser sentida e pode se aumentar, caso não sejam adotadas ações para mitigar os impactos ambientais. A Companhia Pátrio de Provisão (Conab) estima redução de 3,8% na safra de 2024/2025, em consequência dos baixos índices pluviométricos e das altas temperaturas na região Núcleo-Sul”, ressalta a pesquisa.
O principal participante do estudo, o engenheiro agrícola Gabriel Petrielli, alerta que a subtracção da produção da cana poderá fomentar uma poderoso queda nas receitas no setor.
“O recuo na produtividade da cana-de-açúcar pode levar a uma redução da receita de CBIOs da ordem de US$ 1,9 milhão para cada bilhão de litros de etanol produzido, resultando em uma perda de receita no setor da ordem de US$ 60 milhões anualmente”, destaca.
Veja imagens dos incêndios em diversas cidades de São Paulo
1/8
(Foco de incêndio próximo a rodovia presidente Fortaleza Branco)
![An area affected by bushfires is pictured near the SP-215 highway in Sao Carlos, Sao Paulo state, Brazil on August 23, 2024. Forest fires in southeastern Brazil prompted a maximum alert to be declared on August 23, in around 30 cities in the state of Sao Paulo, where the fire blocked roads and smoke reached the capital Sao Paulo, according to local authorities. (Photo by Lourival Izaque / AFP)]( "An area affected by bushfires is pictured near the SP-215 highway in Sao Carlos, Sao Paulo state, Brazil on August 23, 2024. Forest fires in southeastern Brazil prompted a maximum alert to be declared on August 23, in around 30 cities in the state of Sao Paulo, where the fire blocked roads and smoke reached the capital Sao Paulo, according to local authorities. (Photo by Lourival Izaque / AFP)")
2/8
An area affected by bushfires is pictured near the SP-215 highway in Sao Carlos, Sao Paulo state, Brazil on August 23, 2024. Forest fires in southeastern Brazil prompted a maximum alert to be declared on August 23, in around 30 cities in the state of Sao Paulo, where the fire blocked roads and smoke reached the capital Sao Paulo, according to lugar authorities. (Photo by Lourival Izaque / AFP)
(Incêndio em São Carlos na sexta-feira, 23)![An area affected by bushfires is pictured near the SP-215 highway in Sao Carlos, Sao Paulo state, Brazil on August 23, 2024. Forest fires in southeastern Brazil prompted a maximum alert to be declared on August 23, in around 30 cities in the state of Sao Paulo, where the fire blocked roads and smoke reached the capital Sao Paulo, according to local authorities. (Photo by Lourival Izaque / AFP)]( "An area affected by bushfires is pictured near the SP-215 highway in Sao Carlos, Sao Paulo state, Brazil on August 23, 2024. Forest fires in southeastern Brazil prompted a maximum alert to be declared on August 23, in around 30 cities in the state of Sao Paulo, where the fire blocked roads and smoke reached the capital Sao Paulo, according to local authorities. (Photo by Lourival Izaque / AFP)")
3/8
An area affected by bushfires is pictured near the SP-215 highway in Sao Carlos, Sao Paulo state, Brazil on August 23, 2024. Forest fires in southeastern Brazil prompted a maximum alert to be declared on August 23, in around 30 cities in the state of Sao Paulo, where the fire blocked roads and smoke reached the capital Sao Paulo, according to lugar authorities. (Photo by Lourival Izaque / AFP)
(É a maior quantidade de incêndios num mês desde o início da série histórica, em 1998)![Firefighters battle a fire at the SP-215 highway in Sao Carlos, Sao Paulo state, Brazil on August 24, 2024. Forest fires in southeastern Brazil prompted a maximum alert to be declared on August 23, in around 30 cities in the state of Sao Paulo, where the fire blocked roads and smoke reached the capital Sao Paulo, according to local authorities. (Photo by Lourival Izaque / AFP)]( "Firefighters battle a fire at the SP-215 highway in Sao Carlos, Sao Paulo state, Brazil on August 24, 2024. Forest fires in southeastern Brazil prompted a maximum alert to be declared on August 23, in around 30 cities in the state of Sao Paulo, where the fire blocked roads and smoke reached the capital Sao Paulo, according to local authorities. (Photo by Lourival Izaque / AFP)")
4/8
Firefighters battle a fire at the SP-215 highway in Sao Carlos, Sao Paulo state, Brazil on August 24, 2024. Forest fires in southeastern Brazil prompted a maximum alert to be declared on August 23, in around 30 cities in the state of Sao Paulo, where the fire blocked roads and smoke reached the capital Sao Paulo, according to lugar authorities. (Photo by Lourival Izaque / AFP)
(Governo do Estado de São Paulo vai destinar R$ 10 milhões para combate aos incêndios)![Firefighters spray water on a farm affected by bushfires in Sao Carlos, Sao Paulo state, Brazil on August 24, 2024. Forest fires in southeastern Brazil prompted a maximum alert to be declared on August 23, in around 30 cities in the state of Sao Paulo, where the fire blocked roads and smoke reached the capital Sao Paulo, according to local authorities. (Photo by Lourival Izaque / AFP)]( "Firefighters spray water on a farm affected by bushfires in Sao Carlos, Sao Paulo state, Brazil on August 24, 2024. Forest fires in southeastern Brazil prompted a maximum alert to be declared on August 23, in around 30 cities in the state of Sao Paulo, where the fire blocked roads and smoke reached the capital Sao Paulo, according to local authorities. (Photo by Lourival Izaque / AFP)")
5/8
Firefighters spray water on a farm affected by bushfires in Sao Carlos, Sao Paulo state, Brazil on August 24, 2024. Forest fires in southeastern Brazil prompted a maximum alert to be declared on August 23, in around 30 cities in the state of Sao Paulo, where the fire blocked roads and smoke reached the capital Sao Paulo, according to lugar authorities. (Photo by Lourival Izaque / AFP)
(Bombeiros tentam extinguir o queimação em São Carlos (SP))![Firefighters battle a fire at the SP-215 highway in Sao Carlos, Sao Paulo state, Brazil on August 23, 2024. Forest fires in southeastern Brazil prompted a maximum alert to be declared on August 23, in around 30 cities in the state of Sao Paulo, where the fire blocked roads and smoke reached the capital Sao Paulo, according to local authorities. (Photo by Lourival IZAQUE / AFP)]( "Firefighters battle a fire at the SP-215 highway in Sao Carlos, Sao Paulo state, Brazil on August 23, 2024. Forest fires in southeastern Brazil prompted a maximum alert to be declared on August 23, in around 30 cities in the state of Sao Paulo, where the fire blocked roads and smoke reached the capital Sao Paulo, according to local authorities. (Photo by Lourival IZAQUE / AFP)")
6/8
Firefighters battle a fire at the SP-215 highway in Sao Carlos, Sao Paulo state, Brazil on August 23, 2024. Forest fires in southeastern Brazil prompted a maximum alert to be declared on August 23, in around 30 cities in the state of Sao Paulo, where the fire blocked roads and smoke reached the capital Sao Paulo, according to lugar authorities. (Photo by Lourival IZAQUE / AFP)
(Nesta sexta-feira, São Paulo registrou 1.886 focos de incêndios)![A tree burnt by bushfires is pictured in Sao Carlos, Sao Paulo state, Brazil on August 24, 2024. Forest fires in southeastern Brazil prompted a maximum alert to be declared on August 23, in around 30 cities in the state of Sao Paulo, where the fire blocked roads and smoke reached the capital Sao Paulo, according to local authorities. (Photo by Lourival Izaque / AFP)]( "A tree burnt by bushfires is pictured in Sao Carlos, Sao Paulo state, Brazil on August 24, 2024. Forest fires in southeastern Brazil prompted a maximum alert to be declared on August 23, in around 30 cities in the state of Sao Paulo, where the fire blocked roads and smoke reached the capital Sao Paulo, according to local authorities. (Photo by Lourival Izaque / AFP)")
7/8
A tree burnt by bushfires is pictured in Sao Carlos, Sao Paulo state, Brazil on August 24, 2024. Forest fires in southeastern Brazil prompted a maximum alert to be declared on August 23, in around 30 cities in the state of Sao Paulo, where the fire blocked roads and smoke reached the capital Sao Paulo, according to lugar authorities. (Photo by Lourival Izaque / AFP)
(Estado de São Paulo representou 38% de todas as queimadas do país em agosto)![]()
8/8
(Foco de incêndio próximo a rodovia presidente Fortaleza Branco)
